Airbus Latest Forecast: China Will Need More Than 8,800 New Passenger Aircraft Over the Next 20 Years

On September 8, according to Airbus's latest Global Market Forecast, China will need 8,830 new passenger aircraft over the next two decades, accounting for more than 20% of total global new passenger aircraft demand (42,060 units) over the same period.

Despite geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges, the civil aviation industry has continued to demonstrate strong resilience. The rapid growth of the middle class and the advancement of urbanization are prompting airlines to expand their route networks, not only in traditional markets but also by establishing new connections between emerging small and medium-sized city pairs.

Airbus forecasts that China's air passenger traffic will continue to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.2%, rising from 1.7 trillion revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) in 2025 to 4.6 trillion RPK in 2045. The average number of annual flights per capita in China will increase from 0.5 in 2025 to 1.4 in 2045.

Airbus forecasts that by 2045, China's in-service passenger aircraft fleet will grow to 9,860 units. To meet this demand, China will require 7,480 new single-aisle aircraft and 1,350 new widebody aircraft. Of these, 4,960 single-aisle aircraft and 800 widebody aircraft are expected to be used for fleet expansion, while 2,520 single-aisle aircraft and 550 widebody aircraft (accounting for more than 35% of total demand) will be used to replace older models.

Replacing previous-generation aircraft with advanced, efficient, next-generation models is a global trend for reducing operating costs and supporting the sustainable development of the aviation industry. It is estimated that by 2035, the proportion of next-generation aircraft in China's fleet will increase significantly from 30% in 2025 to approximately 70% by 2035.

"China is a cornerstone of the global aviation market and Airbus's largest single market. Airbus supports the high-quality development of China's aviation industry by providing a competitive product portfolio and localized solutions covering the full aircraft lifecycle, from R&D and design, manufacturing and final assembly, to customer service and recycling," said Xu Gang, Executive Vice President of Airbus and CEO of Airbus China. "Airbus will continue to deepen its presence in the Chinese market, meet China's long-term fleet requirements with efficient and sustainable solutions, and contribute to the high-quality development of China's aviation industry."

As of the end of August 2026, nearly 30 airlines in mainland China operated a total of 2,370 Airbus civil aircraft, with a market share exceeding 50%.