Cirium: COMAC's Global Fleet Share to Reach 5% Over the Next 20 Years, Led by C919 Growth

According to foreign media reports, aviation analytics firm Cirium forecast on Tuesday that by 2045, Airbus will account for 47% of the global passenger aircraft fleet allocation, Boeing 39%, COMAC 5%, Embraer 3%, and ATR 2%. In its annual aircraft fleet outlook summary, Cirium said the projected allocations "reflect the continued concentration of Airbus and Boeing as well as a gradual shift toward emerging manufacturers." Shanghai-based COMAC is expanding its global market share through sales of the C909 regional aircraft and the C919 narrowbody. T

he C919 entered commercial service in 2023 and has received more than 1,000 orders from Chinese airlines. Current delivery pace is affected by factors such as the supply chain, and COMAC is steadily advancing production ramp-up. The company is also seeking certification to allow the C919 to fly in the European Union. Cirium's report said that by 2045, China will account for 18% of global aircraft fleet allocation, with narrowbody aircraft leading other large aircraft types because of their "greater seat capacity and unit cost efficiency." Narrowbodies account for 76% of the projected passenger aircraft fleet allocation, while regional aircraft account for only 3%. The single-aisle C919 is comparable to the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families.

Cirium said it expects a compound annual growth rate of 3.2% for the global passenger aircraft fleet over the forecast period to 2045, slightly below its forecast last year. The company said global supply chain bottlenecks, cost pressures, and "geopolitical uncertainty" are constraining the pace of new capacity additions. It forecasts that approximately 43,000 new passenger aircraft, freighters, and turboprops will be delivered worldwide between 2026 and 2045, with a total value estimated at $3.2 trillion at current prices; by 2045, more than 50,000 passenger aircraft will be in service.